Cindy and the Cheese Soufflé

 

Rummaging through some 'old papers' can be entertaining at time.   This is an extract from an August 2000 keynote presentation of mine at the HotConnects Conference at Stanford University.  I didn't publish it at the time, but it became a bit of a guidepost for the Intel Collaboratory that we commissioned soon after.   Most of the points covered have indeed been solved in the intervening 25 years, but it is surprising to me still how long that evolution required.  Herewith the paper:  

              

It sometimes takes a historical look when we seek to anticipate the future.  It is always fascinating as well to look at past visionaries, not least for the humorous miscues that they mistakenly foresaw, but more importantly for cues that they noted, but didn't yet know how to interpret.  For example, at the visionary 'look ahead fifty years' ACM '97 conference, "Beyond Computing" in San Jose (CA), there were several acute observations about the 'separateness' of the communications networks, both circuit-switched and broadcast, from the packet-switched computer data networks, and when they might merge, and indeed, whether it would matter or not.  But incredibly, there was almost no energy devoted to the Web, or to wireless, and no credence whatsoever to alternative computing architectures, such as the DSP structures that enable the panoply of Network appliances from Palm Pilots to ubiquitous cell phones.  All of these misses occurred a scant three years ago, by the leading pundits of the leading computer science society on the globe. What were they 'not thinking?'

 They certainly were 'not thinking' about everyday life at our home.  A common situation at our place is a daughter calling home during dinner preparation.   Our home, like most homes of our colleagues, is pretty technology-equipped.  We have seven computers, nine television sets or monitors, two scanners, four printers, six VCRs, three cell phones with their own numbers, and six telephone handsets in our home, four of which are 900MHz wireless sets.  In our library, we have a conferencing Sound Station, for effective conference calls, "just as at your office conference room."   We even have a video conferencing capability in our office, unconnected at the moment, but occasionally demonstrated.

Most evenings, we're in the kitchen, with 'surround' stereo softly playing, and the TV on, in the corner on moderate volume.    My wife cooks while I chatter about the day's activities.  The phone rings, and I answer it since she is busy whipping up the ingredients for a Cheese Soufllé.  This means picking up the handset, and either turning down the volume for the TV or the stereo (or both), or leaving the room so that I can hear my daughter Cindy on the other end.  Soon enough, she asks about Jenny, who deigns to answer because she is in the middle of a critical part of the soufflé preparation.   I finish the conversation, hang up, turn the stereo volume back up, and Jenny says, "Wha'd she say?"  To which I reply, "She says she's fine."   At this point, the soufflé preparation moves down the priority list.  Lots of energy and invective: "I want to know every word."   It is pointless to suggest that no mortal, certainly no father, could be expected to do such a Herculean task.   It requires only modest experimentation to discover that most wives and mothers share this perception about their spouse's inability to relate a simple conversation.

Recently, while completing construction of a new home, I suggested to my builder something more elegant to handle this issue.  One migh start with a simple switch that would allow switching the phone conversation into the stereo speakers, much like my new automobile does routinely.  Of course, you would want the caller identified before allowing the cut-over, and you might want to soften rather than abort the stereo signal, but these are small details.   When the telephone conversation ends, music resumes at the original volume.  The room should have conferencing capability so that  participation is both 'hands-free' and open to all present.  And there should be microphone pickup throughout the kitchen, so that Jenny can move about and talk, and be heard from anywhere she moves.  And we should be able to archive (e.g. save) the conversation.

To be sure, some kitchen nosies might need muting, such as water running at the sink, but echo-cancellation software and notch filters are becoming well-known and available technologies. Multiple other stationary or roaming folk should be as easily heard, with automatic selectivity and volume adjustment  for the person speaking.   Privacy is gained by simply lifting the handset.  Would Jenny be open to wearing a headset while cooking?  Would casual visitors sitting at the bar counter balk? 

I called five different vendors of video- and audio-conferencing equipment for advice on how to wire and equip my home for this Cheese Soufflé problem.  All referred me to the 'after-market' meaning that they don't sell to end-users, nor to businesses.  Instead they sell to distributors and custom installers, who tailor a solution for the hapless soul who is seeking answers in this realm (reminiscent of sagas on file about the early automotive enthusiasts, or fledgling EDP department managers and users).

I called my favorite 'after-market' installer, a premier Sound and Video custom design shop in Palo Alto (CA) which had done earlier work for us.   They have wired the homes of numerous CEOs and CTOs in Silicon Valley, names that we would all say, "yea, verily, they are important in our industry."  And their immediate response was "wow, we 've never had a request like that before.  But tell you what, our designers would love to tackle a problem like that one." 

I did the same in New Jersey (where the home is), and it took seven different companies coming out, each with referrals to their favorite 'smart consultant' before getting the guy from "New Yawk City" who had reputedly done the very best Commercial Conference Centers in Manhattan.  His quote, ignoring any wireless solution entirely, was $23,000 worth of wiring and simple switch controllers before we got to any of the eqipment needed to make it work (e.g. televisions, speakers, phones).  He had a smart quip, intended to dissuade me no doubt, that he only knew of two such homes in America, and that he himself was 'up on this' because he attends all the meaningful conferences.

One of the two homes, he averred, was Bill Gates' and the other was Craig Barrett, the president of Intel.  My retort was in like spirit, saying that if those two found themselves in my kitchen while Jenny was cooking, I'd like them at least to feel 'at home.'  He must have thought me insane.   He drove away, mumbling, without an order.  The insanity to me is that this cannot be done easily. It is technically pretty easy to do, but it is architecturally difficult because the various communication networks don't interact.  Since it is hard to do architecturally, it isn't done hardly at all, and thus it remains cost-prohibitive.

Ahh, but now, with the Web, everything can be digitized and packetized, so it should be doable.  Well, yes, and no.  Yes, technically.  No, architecturally, because everything is a conversion.  We have streaming video, we have VOIP, and we have QOS levels of service. But we don't have the paradigm of switching for the usage, and essentially, no one is designing for that model.   

The telephone companies, in their death-throes, are not chartered to provide multi-mediated home switching centers, nor do any of them believe in that.  Which is a shame, because they alone believe in two-way communications.   

The entertainment world (radio, television, movies, and music) is fixated on content, especially on its ownership, protection, and control.  The most paranoid of groups, they view users as potential thieves of their almighty content, so they religiously guard their creation, production, distribution model zealously, thwarting any illusion of an interactive, conversational, collaborative view of media for the world.

And the computing world, the newest and most innovative of the three, is primarily focused around a data-centric world-view, as PCs in the home stalled at 50% of homes vs. 97% for phones and 98% for TVs.  And we're seeing Palm Pilot usage surge, plus DSP-based cell phones.  Where might this lead?  Why cannot the technology that can pop multiple windows on your PC screen for your utility bills, phone bill, and bank account be used for more conversational roles?

In other words, a simple request: PROVDE NEW COMMUNICATIONS CAPABILITY FOR MY FAMILY's ISSUES.  More than one-third of Americans live in a state other than where they were born.   Estimates vary, but one estimate is that 80% of US households have at least one close relative living more than 300 miles away.  And when people get together, for birthdays, anniversaries, holidays, or just visits, little time is spent with extensive readings, database references, or PowerPoint slideshows.  Hugs, kisses, laughter, and clowning around dominate.  People are glad to see each other, and shouts of joy and screams of delight fill the air.  The background noise gets louder, and smiles broaden. Everyone is sad when the day must end.    Give us tools that can facilitate this feeling of togetherness when we're apart.

Notes:

1. I did not include in this HotConnects talk anything about a Video-enhanced Family Meeting, where multiple-site cameras and videographics might be invoked.  I just wanted a simple example for the audience.

2. After giving the talk, a colleague had me meet with John Sabol of Microsoft.  Sabol, a creative engineer for IBM for years, had become personal aide to Bill Gates, and among other things, was responsible for installing the 'smart home' for Gates' personal residence, cited by the NYC consultant.  Sotto voce, Sabol shared that "it doesn't work as well as you'd think.   It required lots of custom software drivers. and they continually need debugging."

I failed to mention to the NYC consultant or to Sabol that my wife had worked closely with Steve Jobs at Apple, that I was currently working for Intel's executive committee on collaboration projects, and that we both knew and worked with Gates on occasion as well.    The good news was that Intel did allow me and my team to create Project Miramar, and the Intel Collaboratory research program over the next few years.  And of course Steve Jobs created the marvelous iPhone a mere seven years later, while Eric Yuan pioneered Zoom a dozen years downstream.  So we are better off today. But my chief goal--to handle the Cheese Soufflé phone call interruption--remains.  Sigh.

California Crazy

 "My gawd, they look old," said my brother's widow, Diane.

I recognized few people; one espied me and delightedly greeted me--"Welcome, Jim," she wheezed."

"Jim?" I thought,  Am I that unrecognizable?

My wife Jenny declined to attend my 60th high school reunion in a town she'd never known.  Diane, though, was born and raised here, so she knew more of the folk in my class, three years ahead of her, than I ever had, since I only arrived in agricultural La Habra in my sophomore high school year.

The thirty alumni of the La Habra class of 1958 gathered for dinner Sept 28, 2018.  Why am I only reporting this now?   Because I just found the notes, as we prepare to move back to California from Oregon to be nearer to family in our dotage.

That night, canes were prominent, walkers evident, health issues topped the conversation.  But laughter abounded, hugs were ubiquitous, old animosities forgotten, and wonder of wonders--great ideas for today's students flowed freely.  The best IMHO was "never confuse Preparation H with toothpaste."

Americans are joiners, members of clubs and associaitons of every kind and description.  Some clubs thrive for years, while others arise and ebb over faddish goals.   Much of America's greatness and magnanimity derives from generosity and charity that flows from religious and secular groups, clubs, societies, organizations and associations in every corner of America.

Some clubs are constantly, inevitably, shrinking.  Think for example about the DeSoto owners club.  A high school class, once graduated, can never grow.  Our club members numbered 225 all told, with 198 'graduating on time.'   Nearly one third have died (7 years ago), not so bad if you think that all the rest of us are beating America's average lifespans for both men and women handily.

 You don't choose to join some clubs--if you graduated with a high school class, you are a member of that group whether or not you ever choose to attend any events.   It is possible to be a member of a group that never convenes, whose members may not realized that they share membership.  Ditto for companies.  Hewlett-Packard started in 1939--the date is irrevocable, so that company by definition is in a group whose origins will always predate World War II.  

For some reason, I got enthused later that night about this group in which I was eating dinner--I thought of them as Ornery Bastards--they've seen it all, they've lived it all, and they can scarcely believe the results of California's growth over eight decades of evolution, innovation, and social change.

I knew a fellow once who actually titled his small group of friends, Yrenro Dratsabs, pronounced Y-Reen-Ro Drat-Sabs, which is Ornery Bastards spelt backwards.   

Of the thirty attendees that night, 5 were born elsewhere than California.   I started musing about how many Californians today were actually born in California before WW II.  The group, however large it was at some point (say, 1940), is clearly been shrinking ever since.   

The next day, I did some noodling on the subject.  California population in 1940 was 6.9 million folk, up from 5.7 million in 1930.   Given the lure of Hollywood, plus migrations described in Grapes of Wrath, my conclusion is that only about 40% of the 6.9 million were actually born in California.  And of those, only a third were under 15 years old in 1940.  So the cohort we are trying to describe here starts with roughly 900,000 to one million folk who would have had a chance to be in our current group.

Using the demographic for our own high school graduating class, roughly 40% have moved away--a statistic seldom mentioned about Americans is that Westerners are much more mobile than Easterners or Midwestern folk.  28% of our class had passed away, but this is the 'last year' of that 15 year cohort, for which on average more than 65% have departed the world of the living.

Taking these two factors together, the 900,000 cohort has shrunk by this point to about 180,000 living native Californians born before World War II.  This computes to about 4 people in 1,000 in California who belong to this group which is now shrinking faster than at any earlier time.  I posed this once to an octogenarian in Woodlake, CA (a rural agricultural town of about 8,000 folk), Coach Frank Ainley   https://www.woodlakefoundation.org/hof-past-inductees/blog-post-title-one-6nx32-cljdn

Ainley, youngest of three boys, stayed in town after WW II service, ranching on his father's homestead.  An older brother went to Alaska and stayed; I never learned about the eldest son's pathway.  By Frank and I agreed, that we were in a small club, one getting smaller by the year.

Years as the Woodlake football coach didn't dim Ainley's love of the ranching world.   As patriarch, he still heads up one of Califronia's dwindling 'large' cattle ranche.   705 head in 2004, vs. 93% of CA's cattle ranches less than 100 head, accordin to one interview when Frank was 71 (born in 1933).    https://www.facebook.com/groups/605982946133424/posts/25035594522745593/

So, think about it--a tiny few of those in this club started with the flappers and the chnchilla coats and the speak-easies of the late 1920;s, to build the land "of fruits and nuts" and the high-tech leadership of aircraft and war tools in Southern California, long before California spawned the personal computer, WorldWideWeb, and iPhone from Silicon Valley, not to metntion an avant garde approach to societal issues of every stripe.  How to capture these changes and emotions?  An impossible task at one level, but one wonders if vignettes centered around specific ideas, individuals, careers, and towns could provide an anchor for each of us to appreciate more deeply the past eight decades of California in the American pantheon.

Jenny's cousin Joan Didion tried, god knows, to capture some of this.  Dare I try?

Such an effort would indeed be California Crazy.