Impact of re-opening

How soon, people ask, will we know about the impact of "re-opening" states with quarantines or some other version of "lock-down"?   And, of course, there are so many variables that it might indeed be hard to discern, as new organizations and institutions have specific hotspots (e.g. the Fresno prison outbreak this week).

In fact, three 'local' counties exhibit this issue well.   We live in Tulare County, one of eleven roughly contiguous agricultural counties in the area.

Santa Barbara County, with 544 cases total on May 5, had 1,371 cases on May 12.   Of the 827 "new cases", 792 were at the Lompoc prison, 131 of them with guards and staff, the rest were prisoners.

Kings County, with 506 cases on May 23, had already had one food processing plant turn up 170 cases, but by May 31, they had 1,122 cases, and by June 6, 1,492 total cases.   Of the 986 cases in the past two weeks, 878 traced to the prison outbreak.

Fresno County had 1,448 cases on May 23, and two weeks later it had grown to 2,122.   Of the 674 new cases, 614 were at the prison.  

So, for those three counties, 2,284 new cases were specifically at local prisons, but only 203 in the population at large.   By contrast, Tulare County had no prison or nursing home outbreaks of late (they had plenty of nursing home and food processing plant issues earlier), but they had 475 new cases, the bulk of which appear to be 'community spreading'

We're seeing things like this all over America--Iowa, Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma, South Dakota just to name a few 'unusual' locales.

Here, from our website https://anywhereanytime.io/covid19/ are comparisons of all the states in America, comparing the past two weeks (May 23-Jun 5) vs. May 9-May 22) for Changes.    We only report on States that are UP more than 30%, or DOWN more than 30%.   15 states are up that much or more; 12 states are down that much or more; 23 states and DC are 'more or less' constant.