Saturday, January 9, 2021

Context for USA vs CALIF vs our counties

 It's always a question whenever something goes wrong--as the event unfolds, who believes what in the chaos and noise?   And yes, we could say that, profoundly, about the tragic events of January 6 at the national capital, but I am thinking today primarily about the ongoing ravaging Covid pandemic.

Many folk we've talked with this week have seemingly turned blasé about the virus.  Is it due to the imminent (perhaps) arrival of a vaccine, or the domination of political news instead, or the "pandemic fatigue" now bandied about as 'normal'?   Even our data source, USA Facts, has struggled to keep their site updated, or even accurate--something we've not experienced at all in the first nine months of the pandemic

And now, California, said to be 'on top' of this virus almost from the get-go, is 'the worst' in America.  Meanwhile, 1 million Californians have signed a recall petition for Governor Newsom because he has the gumption to insist on controlled lockdowns (thwarting our precious freedom to kill others or die).

So, just from a data-driven perspective, how bad is it?   Here, grouped by 10 day intervals, are the last six intervals for the US data, the CA data, and the three Agricultural counties where I currently live


So, in six weeks, American cases have doubled, and deaths are up by a factor of 3.  So much for the issue about the Thanksgiving surge.  YUP, we had one.   How about for the Christmas holidays--well, we don't know yet, but the first eight days of January are up 31% nationally over the previous high (of Dec 21-31).   Is a mere 31% a surge on top of record numbers?   Well, if your stock market holdings went up 31%, you'd likely be astounded.   

But while America doubled in cases, our state was up by a factor of 6.5x--let me state that again, UP BY SIX and a HALF TIMES, and our local counties kept pace.   Deaths?  Well, compare the graphs and it is easy to see the same SIX and a HALF TIMES, but note that the swift rise was delayed by two weeks on average.   So, if we just have experienced another 31% increase in cases, we'll likely be up somewhere close to TEN TIMES the average death rate as we move through January 2021.  

Hard for me to be blasé about all this; how about you?




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