Sunday, December 21, 2025

Cindy and the Cheese Soufflé

 

Rummaging through some 'old papers' can be entertaining at time.   This is an extract from an August 2000 keynote presentation of mine at the HotConnects Conference at Stanford University.  I didn't publish it at the time, but it became a bit of a guidepost for the Intel Collaboratory that we commissioned soon after.   Most of the points covered have indeed been solved in the intervening 25 years, but it is surprising to me still how long that evolution required.  Herewith the paper:  
              
It sometimes takes a historical look when we seek to anticipate the future.  It is always fascinating as well to look at past visionaries, not least for the humorous miscues that they mistakenly foresaw, but more importantly for cues that they noted, but didn't yet know how to interpret.  For example, at the visionary 'look ahead fifty years' ACM '97 conference, "Beyond Computing" in San Jose (CA), there were several acute observations about the 'separateness' of the communications networks, both circuit-switched and broadcast, from the packet-switched computer data networks, and when they might merge, and indeed, whether it would matter or not.  But incredibly, there was almost no energy devoted to the Web, or to wireless, and no credence whatsoever to alternative computing architectures, such as the DSP structures that enable the panoply of Network appliances from Palm Pilots to ubiquitous cell phones.  All of these misses occurred a scant three years ago, by the leading pundits of the leading computer science society on the globe. What were they 'not thinking?'

 They certainly were 'not thinking' about everyday life at our home.  A common situation at our place is a daughter calling home during dinner preparation.   Our home, like most homes of our colleagues, is pretty technology-equipped.  We have seven computers, nine television sets or monitors, two scanners, four printers, six VCRs, three cell phones with their own numbers, and six telephone handsets in our home, four of which are 900MHz wireless sets.  In our library, we have a conferencing Sound Station, for effective conference calls, "just as at your office conference room."   We even have a video conferencing capability in our office, unconnected at the moment, but occasionally demonstrated.

Most evenings, we're in the kitchen, with 'surround' stereo softly playing, and the TV on, in the corner on moderate volume.    My wife cooks while I chatter about the day's activities.  The phone rings, and I answer it since she is busy whipping up the ingredients for a Cheese Soufllé.  This means picking up the handset, and either turning down the volume for the TV or the stereo (or both), or leaving the room so that I can hear my daughter Cindy on the other end.  Soon enough, she asks about Jenny, who deigns to answer because she is in the middle of a critical part of the soufflé preparation.   I finish the conversation, hang up, turn the stereo volume back up, and Jenny says, "Wha'd she say?"  To which I reply, "She says she's fine."   At this point, the soufflé preparation moves down the priority list.  Lots of energy and invective: "I want to know every word."   It is pointless to suggest that no mortal, certainly no father, could be expected to do such a Herculean task.   It requires only modest experimentation to discover that most wives and mothers share this perception about their spouse's inability to relate a simple conversation.

Recently, while completing construction of a new home, I suggested to my builder something more elegant to handle this issue.  One migh start with a simple switch that would allow switching the phone conversation into the stereo speakers, much like my new automobile does routinely.  Of course, you would want the caller identified before allowing the cut-over, and you might want to soften rather than abort the stereo signal, but these are small details.   When the telephone conversation ends, music resumes at the original volume.  The room should have conferencing capability so that  participation is both 'hands-free' and open to all present.  And there should be microphone pickup throughout the kitchen, so that Jenny can move about and talk, and be heard from anywhere she moves.  And we should be able to archive (e.g. save) the conversation.

To be sure, some kitchen nosies might need muting, such as water running at the sink, but echo-cancellation software and notch filters are becoming well-known and available technologies. Multiple other stationary or roaming folk should be as easily heard, with automatic selectivity and volume adjustment  for the person speaking.   Privacy is gained by simply lifting the handset.  Would Jenny be open to wearing a headset while cooking?  Would casual visitors sitting at the bar counter balk? 

I called five different vendors of video- and audio-conferencing equipment for advice on how to wire and equip my home for this Cheese Soufflé problem.  All referred me to the 'after-market' meaning that they don't sell to end-users, nor to businesses.  Instead they sell to distributors and custom installers, who tailor a solution for the hapless soul who is seeking answers in this realm (reminiscent of sagas on file about the early automotive enthusiasts, or fledgling EDP department managers and users).

I called my favorite 'after-market' installer, a premier Sound and Video custom design shop in Palo Alto (CA) which had done earlier work for us.   They have wired the homes of numerous CEOs and CTOs in Silicon Valley, names that we would all say, "yea, verily, they are important in our industry."  And their immediate response was "wow, we 've never had a request like that before.  But tell you what, our designers would love to tackle a problem like that one." 

I did the same in New Jersey (where the home is), and it took seven different companies coming out, each with referrals to their favorite 'smart consultant' before getting the guy from "New Yawk City" who had reputedly done the very best Commercial Conference Centers in Manhattan.  His quote, ignoring any wireless solution entirely, was $23,000 worth of wiring and simple switch controllers before we got to any of the eqipment needed to make it work (e.g. televisions, speakers, phones).  He had a smart quip, intended to dissuade me no doubt, that he only knew of two such homes in America, and that he himself was 'up on this' because he attends all the meaningful conferences.

One of the two homes, he averred, was Bill Gates' and the other was Craig Barrett, the president of Intel.  My retort was in like spirit, saying that if those two found themselves in my kitchen while Jenny was cooking, I'd like them at least to feel 'at home.'  He must have thought me insane.   He drove away, mumbling, without an order.  The insanity to me is that this cannot be done easily. It is technically pretty easy to do, but it is architecturally difficult because the various communication networks don't interact.  Since it is hard to do architecturally, it isn't done hardly at all, and thus it remains cost-prohibitive.

Ahh, but now, with the Web, everything can be digitized and packetized, so it should be doable.  Well, yes, and no.  Yes, technically.  No, architecturally, because everything is a conversion.  We have streaming video, we have VOIP, and we have QOS levels of service. But we don't have the paradigm of switching for the usage, and essentially, no one is designing for that model.   

The telephone companies, in their death-throes, are not chartered to provide multi-mediated home switching centers, nor do any of them believe in that.  Which is a shame, because they alone believe in two-way communications.   

The entertainment world (radio, television, movies, and music) is fixated on content, especially on its ownership, protection, and control.  The most paranoid of groups, they view users as potential thieves of their almighty content, so they religiously guard their creation, production, distribution model zealously, thwarting any illusion of an interactive, conversational, collaborative view of media for the world.

And the computing world, the newest and most innovative of the three, is primarily focused around a data-centric world-view, as PCs in the home stalled at 50% of homes vs. 97% for phones and 98% for TVs.  And we're seeing Palm Pilot usage surge, plus DSP-based cell phones.  Where might this lead?  Why cannot the technology that can pop multiple windows on your PC screen for your utility bills, phone bill, and bank account be used for more conversational roles?

In other words, a simple request: PROVDE NEW COMMUNICATIONS CAPABILITY FOR MY FAMILY's ISSUES.  More than one-third of Americans live in a state other than where they were born.   Estimates vary, but one estimate is that 80% of US households have at least one close relative living more than 300 miles away.  And when people get together, for birthdays, anniversaries, holidays, or just visits, little time is spent with extensive readings, database references, or PowerPoint slideshows.  Hugs, kisses, laughter, and clowning around dominate.  People are glad to see each other, and shouts of joy and screams of delight fill the air.  The background noise gets louder, and smiles broaden. Everyone is sad when the day must end.    Give us tools that can facilitate this feeling of togetherness when we're apart.

Notes:

1. I did not include in this HotConnects talk anything about a Video-enhanced Family Meeting, where multiple-site cameras and videographics might be invoked.  I just wanted a simple example for the audience.

2. After giving the talk, a colleague had me meet with John Sabol of Microsoft.  Sabol, a creative engineer for IBM for years, had become personal aide to Bill Gates, and among other things, was responsible for installing the 'smart home' for Gates' personal residence, cited by the NYC consultant.  Sotto voce, Sabol shared that "it doesn't work as well as you'd think.   It required lots of custom software drivers. and they continually need debugging."

I failed to mention to the NYC consultant or to Sabol that my wife had worked closely with Steve Jobs at Apple, that I was currently working for Intel's executive committee on collaboration projects, and that we both knew and worked with Gates on occasion as well.    The good news was that Intel did allow me and my team to create Project Miramar, and the Intel Collaboratory research program over the next few years.  And of course Steve Jobs created the marvelous iPhone a mere seven years later, while Eric Yuan pioneered Zoom a dozen years downstream.  So we are better off today. But my chief goal--to handle the Cheese Soufflé phone call interruption--remains.  Sigh.



Friday, December 5, 2025

California Crazy

 "My gawd, they look old," said my brother's widow, Diane.

I recognized few people; one espied me and delightedly greeted me--"Welcome, Jim," she wheezed."

"Jim?" I thought,  Am I that unrecognizable?

My wife Jenny declined to attend my 60th high school reunion in a town she'd never known.  Diane, though, was born and raised here, so she knew more of the folk in my class, three years ahead of her, than I ever had, since I only arrived in agricultural La Habra in my sophomore high school year.

The thirty alumni of the La Habra class of 1958 gathered for dinner Sept 28, 2018.  Why am I only reporting this now?   Because I just found the notes, as we prepare to move back to California from Oregon to be nearer to family in our dotage.

That night, canes were prominent, walkers evident, health issues topped the conversation.  But laughter abounded, hugs were ubiquitous, old animosities forgotten, and wonder of wonders--great ideas for today's students flowed freely.  The best IMHO was "never confuse Preparation H with toothpaste."

Americans are joiners, members of clubs and associaitons of every kind and description.  Some clubs thrive for years, while others arise and ebb over faddish goals.   Much of America's greatness and magnanimity derives from generosity and charity that flows from religious and secular groups, clubs, societies, organizations and associations in every corner of America.

Some clubs are constantly, inevitably, shrinking.  Think for example about the DeSoto owners club.  A high school class, once graduated, can never grow.  Our club members numbered 225 all told, with 198 'graduating on time.'   Nearly one third have died (7 years ago), not so bad if you think that all the rest of us are beating America's average lifespans for both men and women handily.

 You don't choose to join some clubs--if you graduated with a high school class, you are a member of that group whether or not you ever choose to attend any events.   It is possible to be a member of a group that never convenes, whose members may not realized that they share membership.  Ditto for companies.  Hewlett-Packard started in 1939--the date is irrevocable, so that company by definition is in a group whose origins will always predate World War II.  

For some reason, I got enthused later that night about this group in which I was eating dinner--I thought of them as Ornery Bastards--they've seen it all, they've lived it all, and they can scarcely believe the results of California's growth over eight decades of evolution, innovation, and social change.

I knew a fellow once who actually titled his small group of friends, Yrenro Dratsabs, pronounced Y-Reen-Ro Drat-Sabs, which is Ornery Bastards spelt backwards.   

Of the thirty attendees that night, 5 were born elsewhere than California.   I started musing about how many Californians today were actually born in California before WW II.  The group, however large it was at some point (say, 1940), is clearly been shrinking ever since.   

The next day, I did some noodling on the subject.  California population in 1940 was 6.9 million folk, up from 5.7 million in 1930.   Given the lure of Hollywood, plus migrations described in Grapes of Wrath, my conclusion is that only about 40% of the 6.9 million were actually born in California.  And of those, only a third were under 15 years old in 1940.  So the cohort we are trying to describe here starts with roughly 900,000 to one million folk who would have had a chance to be in our current group.

Using the demographic for our own high school graduating class, roughly 40% have moved away--a statistic seldom mentioned about Americans is that Westerners are much more mobile than Easterners or Midwestern folk.  28% of our class had passed away, but this is the 'last year' of that 15 year cohort, for which on average more than 65% have departed the world of the living.

Taking these two factors together, the 900,000 cohort has shrunk by this point to about 180,000 living native Californians born before World War II.  This computes to about 4 people in 1,000 in California who belong to this group which is now shrinking faster than at any earlier time.  I posed this once to an octogenarian in Woodlake, CA (a rural agricultural town of about 8,000 folk), Coach Frank Ainley   https://www.woodlakefoundation.org/hof-past-inductees/blog-post-title-one-6nx32-cljdn

Ainley, youngest of three boys, stayed in town after WW II service, ranching on his father's homestead.  An older brother went to Alaska and stayed; I never learned about the eldest son's pathway.  By Frank and I agreed, that we were in a small club, one getting smaller by the year.

Years as the Woodlake football coach didn't dim Ainley's love of the ranching world.   As patriarch, he still heads up one of Califronia's dwindling 'large' cattle ranche.   705 head in 2004, vs. 93% of CA's cattle ranches less than 100 head, accordin to one interview when Frank was 71 (born in 1933).    https://www.facebook.com/groups/605982946133424/posts/25035594522745593/

So, think about it--a tiny few of those in this club started with the flappers and the chnchilla coats and the speak-easies of the late 1920;s, to build the land "of fruits and nuts" and the high-tech leadership of aircraft and war tools in Southern California, long before California spawned the personal computer, WorldWideWeb, and iPhone from Silicon Valley, not to metntion an avant garde approach to societal issues of every stripe.  How to capture these changes and emotions?  An impossible task at one level, but one wonders if vignettes centered around specific ideas, individuals, careers, and towns could provide an anchor for each of us to appreciate more deeply the past eight decades of California in the American pantheon.

Jenny's cousin Joan Didion tried, god knows, to capture some of this.  Dare I try?

Such an effort would indeed be California Crazy.

Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Collected INNOVATION thoughts

 I've mentioned Aidan McCullen now in several past posts.   He runs an active blog service, devoted to innovation questions.

Here are some of the pithy comments he's featured in recent weeks

I particularly like this giraffe painting a picture of what he sees, vs. what we all see typically


Doesn't that about sum it up?

Another one from the animal world:  "If you want to know if the elephant has a stomach ache, don't ask the veterenarian, ask the cage cleaner."   Robert Sapolsky

One from an old friend of mine:  
"A change of perspective is worth 80 IQ points" -- Alan Kay 

Another old friend:
"You must admit that not only you do 'not know' many things, 
but that you 'wrongly know' many things."  Gary Hamel

Some thoughts:

1. "Breakthroughs often come from people you weren't listening to.  People who aren't burdened by the assumptions of the field.   Pay attention to the person who notices the small, strange thing that people step over on the way to being 'busy'."  Srini Pagidyala

2. "We are trained to filter out the noise in the data to find the trends, but the noise, the anomaly, is where novelty lies."   Angus Fletcher, in Primal Intelligence

3. "Real, worthy, problems surface when one spends time doing discovery in the field--talking to users, observing behavior, listening for pain points."     Navin Kunde

4. "Innovation thrives not just on data, but on curiosity about what doesn't fit the usual pattern."  Martin S

5."If everone is thinking alike, then someone isn't thinking."  George Patton

****************   
Aidan has conducted many interviews of 'innovators' and published them in the public domain, which is great.  What might we learn from his own gleaned perspective?  Here's perhaps the greatest one, that totally fits my own experience at HP, Intel, and Cisco to name a few past leaders of high-tech sectors:

"IN SOME SECTORS OF SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY, BREAKTHROUGHS ARE NOT DESIRED by the players ruling them at the moment--for whatever reasons, mostly unrelated or even diametrically opposite to each given sector's priorities.  Therefore, such domains become deliberately isolated, beling artificially turned into stagnating silos, and eventually rot down to a complete oblivion, ussless and pitiful."

Now, there's an indictment!  Does that fit the Intel situation today, where the #1 semiconductor company in the world for more than four decades has fallen to #10 (charitably) in ten years?

How about Cisco, betting big on Computer Teleconferencing with both its proprietary Telepresence and acquisition of Webex, only to have the Webes CTO leave in frustration to set up Zoom?

I cannot even stomach describing how HP botched innovation from 1990 onward, betting on failed strategies (e.g. HP RISC on a 'new' OS and instruction set; ignoring 'personal tools' like the iPhone {having done brilliant hand-held calculators years before}; and completely fudging virtually all application software fields {databases ala Oracle, networking ala Cisco, business tools ala Salesforce, securty tools ala Crowdflare..., the list is practically endless}).

It also fits IBM not wanting RISC, which led Birnbaum to HP and the Valley to 'killing' IBM hardware just about completely.

Sigh







Monday, November 17, 2025

The First Global Innovation Show Interview

 I mentioned a couple weeks ago that Aidan McCullen had called, and wanted to do an interview about our Permission Denied book.   I had said "Yes" and then decided to re-read it.  Pleasantly surprised by what I'd written back before COVID Brain Fog and all that has transpired over the pasts 12 years or so, we went ahead.

Here, for your listening pleasure (???) is a copy of the first 90 minutes or so.   https://youtu.be/ROquLKw8Yxs?si=zjnzwBObKMULFxth

I know, I know, I should have cleaned off the table in the background

(And I shouldn't have aged to the extent that it shows--my gawd, time takes a toll).

Lots of chatty-cathy here, but hopefully (especially if we pull some snippets out later), there is some good material here for the history buffs.




Sunday, November 2, 2025

Autumn and AstroVirtual and Comparative Pictures

 Sometimes newcomers to this Blog ask "What are the topics here?"   And, I stutter with the answer: "Well, it is a function of what InnovaScapes Institute works on, and that is pretty eclectic."   Not very satisfying for someone wondering if this might be worth their time.

So, what topics are 'mostly' here?   Well, InnovaScapes has pursued topics in a wide space, usually as a function of client interest or the founder's own interests.  As such, there is a history of covering "high-tech" stories and analyses, by which is usually meant "computer high-tech."  And medical topics often make the list.   Innovation, too, is a common theme.   Each of those have spawned their own blog:  For example, "high-tech" around computing is often the theme of the HP Phenomenon blog (https://hpphenom.blogspot.com/); Innovation is often discussed from an Intrapreneurial standpoint (https://intrapreneuringinnovation.blogspot.com/) and medical topics such as COVID analyses and COPD analyses are included in the Breathe COPD blog (https://breathecopd.blogspot.com/).  

A nascent blog exists for AstroVirtual (https://www.astrovirtual.com/astrovirtualblog) that discusses virtues and issues for multi-display environments, although this blog has much of the antecedent material for AstroVirtual and also much of the COVID work done at InnovaScapes.

Less frequent, but not unknown, are prejudices and persuasions of the founder and author, Chuck House.

And, just to be forewarned, House has written and pubished something like six books and a hundred articles about the computing world, but he has also written and published six horticultural books.  Without delving into "Why", we can just note that there are many entries about trees and autumn color, or interesting discoveries while traveling, or just factoids that have no other place to be recorded.   Luck of the draw, we call these.  Obviously, you, the dear reader, are not obliged or even expected to read such material, but I cannot resist the notion of scribbling some of this down for posterity.

Such is today's column.   AstroVirtual Inc. is dedicated to the notion that comparative pictures (graphs, photographs, charts, plots, etc) are powerful for quick conveyance of information.   We focus for example on Charts that show facts from BIG DATA.  The next image, for example, highlights the difficulty of understanding the impact of political decisions without recourse to data, but displays easily the impact of the Southern Republican governors in May and June 2020 to abandon lock-downs in early summer, and the result of the governor of South Dakota's asinine decision to allow (encourage actually) the Sturgis SD motorcycle rally at the height of the COVID pandemic in August 2020.  Bet you never saw these images on your public TV channel (doesn't matter if it is Fox News or MSNBC--none of the networks have anyone involved who understand this material).    The governor's action differentially infected more than half a million citizens, killed many thousands, while helping the bottom line of about fourteen bars and seven hotels in Sturgis.  Great tradeoff.  The dog killer--this was Kristi Noam--said none of this slander is true, that it was a hatchet job by left-wing activists.  Ah, so!  Damn that data.


In particular, the Sturgis event sent both South and North Dakota to the very top of the 'most infected' states in America, but more importantly, impacted adversely some 61% of America's counties and recorded the highest infection rates in fourteen states that had hitherto been relatively unscathed.

So, that is the value of comparative side-by-side images--as they taught us in the first science courses to hold the variables constant and then do time-lapse comparisons.   

I titled this "Autumn and AstroVirtual" though for a different reason.  I have been enchanted the past few weeks by the autumn hues on trees in our neighborhood.  I have always been enchanted by the Jack Frost coloration in New England autumns, but over a lifetime have found that many places have beautiful hues.

First, a clear picture of Comparative images for one local Oak Tree, just to show Spring Advance:

And then, just to celebrate our local flora, here are some recent images from McMinnville, Oregon.
The first one compares changing yellow tones of the same Green Ash a week apart:


The next one compares several Green Ash with the White Ash cultivar Autumn Purple


Pictures of some more Ash, just to make the point.   Unfortunately, Ash across America are in serious decline, due to the Emerald Ash Borer.   In two decades, nearly all Ash in America will likely be gone.   
Monocultures, e.g. the American Elm that once graced American towns, or the mighty Chestnut tree (under which the Village Smithy stood c.f. Longfellow), have been decimated.  Meanwhile, enjoy these Ash.


New England's stunning fall landscapes are noteworthy mostly for their handsome varieties of Maple, especially the orange-reds of Sugar Maple and the vermilion reds of Canadian Maple.  Ironically, Oregon (via the Hoyt Arboretum in Portland) has one of the most extensive Maple collections in the world.  Here's their description: "Maple trees thrive in the Pacific Northwest, and our collections reflect that vitality,  The Maple Collection blazes with the colors of over 90 species, subspecies, and cultivars in autumn. Both are accredited by the Plant Collections Network of the American Public Gardens Association, which recognizes the quality and breadth of the collections, the garden’s long-term commitment, a favorable local environment, and institutional expertise."

Translation--our small town has planted many varieties of maple, and their foliage is stunning.  I counted nine major varieties this week within two blocks of home (including the park shown).  The bare tree in the foreground on the right below is the Green Ash shown above in yellow garb.


These trees are all Autumn Blaze, a cross between the Canadian Red and the Silver Maple.

The town has planted these rapid-growing beauties along many major streets. The bright vermilion color deepens to a solid crimson over a two-week period.



By contrast, the true Canadian Red Maple has a smaller, trident-shaped leaf, which colors early, and variably, eventually becoming the same brilliant vermilion of the later Autumn Glory.


I don't want to turn this into a Maple Encyclopedia, but it is true that the big genus of Maples, with all the varietals, are among the most diverse leaf designs in nature.  So, just to give a bit of idea for that, the following several pictures illustrate indeed that a Picture is worth 1,000 words.


Clearly, not all Maples turn red in the fall.   Here, a panoply of Yellow, clockwise from upper left:
Silver Maple, Bigleaf Maple, Japanese Maple,  Norway Maple, Bigtooth Maple, another Norway

And there are many more Red or Red-orange varieties,  On the left is the majestic Sugar Maple, native to New England, while the others are all forms of the palmate Japanese Maple, which are typically 'five-fingered', hence shaped like a hand (or palm).


Japanese Maple come in two basic forms--the Palmate, shown above, and the Japonica, a much fuller leaf with (usually seven) minor lobes.   The Pacific Northwest shrub maple is a Japonica type



So there you have a brief run-through the autumn presentations of a few of the genus Acer (Maple)

Could words describe this panoply, or do the images help?   















































Saturday, November 1, 2025

The Global Innovation Show

 Aidan McCullen, based in Ireland, has a long-running show called "the Global Innovation Show"

Here's a quick synopsis:

About The Show

The Why or “The North Star” for this show is to share fresh information to empower new thinking.

We welcome guests to the show to share their wisdom and inform the community to lead more fulfilled lives.

About The Host

Aidan McCullen is a change consultant and works with organisations to improve how they collaborate and create the environment for change.

Aidan is the host and founder of the Global Innovation Show, which boasts Bill Gates as a listener and advocate and features on Irelands national broadcaster RTÉ and the only English-speaking show on Finland’s Business FM.

He developed and delivers a module on Emerging Technology Trends in Trinity College Business School, ranked as one of the top Business Schools in the world.

Aidan speaks and runs workshops globally on disruption and change for organisations such as Mastercard, Epic Games, Endemol Shine Group, Agilent Technologies, CBC Canada and Toyota and in industries from Pharma to Fintech.

Aidan is a board advisor and Non-Executive board member for National Broadband Ireland.

He reinvented himself after a 10-year career after rugby with over 100 caps for Leinster, Toulouse and London Irish and is a full Ireland Rugby International.

He worked in digital transformation, innovation delivery and now culture and leadership. This journey has led him to believe that you cannot change business models until you first change mental models.

Aidan is the author of the book, “Undisruptable: A Mindset of Permanent Reinvention for Individuals, Organisations and Life” which features a Foreword by Visa founder and CEO Emeritus, Dee Hock.

********************       

Someone, I believe it was Dr. Martin Curley of Maynooth University in Leixlip, Ireland, gave a copy of Permission Denied to McCullen in spring 2024.   I had worked with Martin at Intel Corporation from 2000 to 2006, and again with his program at the annual United Nations Digital Medical workshops in 2023 and 2024 via our multi-display AstroVirtual capability.    Martin asked me to give a commencement talk for graduates at Maynooth in 2023, for which Martin distributed perhaps a hundred copies of the Permission Denied book.

Net net was that McCullen was intrigued, and asked for an interview for his program, way back in March 2024.   He said "lead time is way out" but proffered late in 2025.   Well, no further notice until a week ago, when he sent a note, "How about Friday November 7th?"   

"Sure," I said, noting that a lot of water has gone over the dam in the meantime, and a story about the Moon Monitor from 1969 or the Logic State Analyzer program from 1970-1982 is not exactly today's news.   So I compiled a few notes about things that have happened since, and sent them his way.

He replied promptly, saying he fully knew that, but there's lots of material in the book that he'd like to cover.   So, somewhat in self-defense, I re-read the book, which was published in 2013. And a strange thing happened--one that I've experienced before, but not quite so dramatically.

I read what I had written, with fresh eyes.  Meaning that I didn't recall writing this, so it was like reading new material.  Granted, while reading it, the visceral feelings came back, but it is an unusual experience to read your own work as if it was written by someone else sometime back.  And, I know this might sound egotistical, but I liked what I read.  In fact, I marveled to some degree at what I'd written, sort of in the mood of "Boy, I couldn't write that today so well."  

Maybe more importantly, I found myself testing the hypothesis set forth in the book about how to empower intrapreneurs, and even more, how to empower their managers to empower them, against the work we've been doing in our current start-up, AstroVirtual.   And WOW, I felt, this is pretty ON-TARGET, maybe I should be pushing this book and the thesis more.

I sent that to Aidan, and got this reply: 

Dear Chuck,

Your story is such an important one and it needs to be well preserved and I hope to play my part to do that.

The show is pre recorded so we can play it by ear. 

I’ll just follow your notes and do my research. 


Kind regards,

Aidan

****************     

So who knows how this will turn out.  But I do look forward to it.

Chuck

Friday, September 5, 2025

Statistician's delight

I got a strong recommendation the other day for the work of David Spiegelhalter, a U.K. statistician that colleagues with AstroVirtual find incredible. 

*************** 

Chuck - recommended (by many people) book about Covid numbers

 

Covid By Numbers: Making Sense of the Pandemic with Data: Spiegelhalter, David, Masters, Anthony: 9780241547731: Amazon.com: Books

 

By the guy who wrote the now-classic ‘The Art of Statistics’

 

Brian Julius just endorsed him (Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter) on a podcast, as the best

 

Regards

 

Art


**********************  

Unfortunately, or maybe fortunately(?), I was underwhelmed.   Here's my reply to Art:


Art, thank you for this recommendation.   I sent for both books.   The classic is indeed classic.  Highly recommended, very very well done.


Alas, I cannot report the same for the COVID book.  The book is pocket-sized, 4” x 7” instead of the 6” x 9” of the other one.   And, it is printed in very small type, like 7 point type maximum.   Physically unreadable, although under a magnifying lens (I have an 8x10” magnifier that can render it passably readable).   And when you read it, it is done in generalities and non-specific graphs and wording that would leave someone who knows the data saying “WHAT?”

I thought, maybe this was an el cheapo knockoff from China or something, but apparently this was the original printing.

The reviews are clear that this was a rush job, to try to capture something at the end of the first pandemic year, and that the authors (there are two) did not do a good job in several respects.   I concur.

All the same, it is the best I have seen to date on the topic, which gives me encouragement for my own draft.   Still a virgin territory in terms of meaningful data and analysis.   

Given their reputation, I think they stubbed their toe.  Too bad.

All the best

*****************
Book writing is not for the faint of heart.   Neither are statistics.   And readership, measured in sales terms are hardly sanguine, for nearly all topics, even popular ones like books for the lovelorn, or treatises about Narcissistic Rage, or the favorite breeds of dogs.

A deep discussion with a colleague today raised the question -- aren't blogs, podcasts, short essays, and video vignettes far better communication mechanisms in this age?

And the short answer is YES, and maybe even the longer answer.  But books do still have a place in my view.   They are more durable, more findable over time, and more complete.  Essays must be collected and collated to cover a broad topic.  Videos can be compelling for the first 30 seconds, and maybe pithy enough to merit a five minute 'watch'.  And podcasts, with a commanding compelling voice, can be very satisfying, if ephemeral.    Blogs, of which this is one, have some lasting value, but it is akin to another lost art, Journaling.   We've just crossed 400,000 posting views in mine, but the 'voice' is scattered over myriad topics with little cross-correlation or time-sequential development.

Lament, lament . . .  so what's your point, Charlie?

The point is that I have gotten considerable pushback over the idea of doing a COVID anthology, for a variety of reasons, and I have mostly persevered and have produced a trial volume at this point, for which I need to decide what to do with it.   And, the advice reminds me of similar discussions as the Hewlett-Packard book stimulated at this time in its evolution.

Let me review one observation that my co-author Ray Price had during that HP book preparation time.   We were challenged that we weren't covering one division's products very deeply, certainly to the desired depth that a colleague from that division desired, for which he said "you are claiming to be definitive and thorough, but . . . ."   

The book wound up 656 pages, a very big book by Stanford Press standards, so presumably many things could be covered in such a tome.   But HP in 2007, as we finished the draft, was a $125 Billion revenue per year company, with another $25 Billion in spnoffs, and well more than 100 separate operating divisions still running.  The company legacy was approaching seventy years.  So imagine trying to describe "in any depth whatsoever" how a newly hatched $50 million product line for one division experienced its five year initiation and sales development period.   Equal page-time would give one-third of one page to that story, right?

So authors have to find the essence of the key stories, and both generalize and condense them to make any coherent presentation.   We named some 442 HP employees along the way, vs. the high count of 46 in Mike Malone's contemporary HP book, so we tried!

The same with COVID.   Big topic, affecting virtually every country of the 200 in the world, with nearly a billion identified infected, with more than 7 million known dead (and doubtless twice that manner or more).   How can you cover that with adequate conviction that 'the right stories' have been distilled into the mix?   Ah, that is the author dilemma.  

And, crazy as it sounds, I suspect that I'll persevere.   Wish me luck.